Hololive Road to 1 Million Subscribers Projection (Dec 5 2020)

2020/12/05 に公開
視聴回数 1,880
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How many Hololive girls are expected to reach 1 million subscribers in two months?
Welcome to my video, where I try to guess the future subscription counts of leading Hololive members after two months.
I love numbers races and projections based on trends. My guesses/projections will be based on current trends. Possible sub count bumps due to expected future events may be also taken into account. If changes in trends due to unexpected events happen, my projections will become less accurate.

Music: "Shitsureishimasu ga, RIP?" by Calliope Mori (Instrumental)
Original Music Link: https://youtu.be/5y3xh8gs24c

This video is made using Microsoft PowerPoint. Thanks for watching.

Sora: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp6993wxpyDPHUpavwDFqgg
Roboco: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDqI2jOz0weumE8s7paEk6g

Mel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD8HOxPs4Xvsm8H0ZxXGiBw
Aki: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFTLzh12_nrtzqBPsTCqenA
Haachama: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1CfXB_kRs3C-zaeTG3oGyg
Fubuki: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdn5BQ06XqgXoAxIhbqw5Rg
Matsuri : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQ0UDLQCjY0rmuxCDE38FGg

Aqua : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1opHUrw8rvnsadT-iGp7Cg
Shion : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXTpFs_3PqI41qX2d9tL2Rw
Ayame: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7fk0CB07ly8oSl0aqKkqFg
Choco: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1suqwovbL1kzsoaZgFZLKg
Subaru: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvzGlP9oQwU--Y0r9id_jnA

Mio : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp-5t9SrOQwXMU7iIjQfARg
Okayu : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvaTdHTWBGv3MKj3KVqJVCw
Korone : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChAnqc_AY5_I3Px5dig3X1Q

Miko : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-hM6YJuNYVAmUWxeIr9FeA

Pekora : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1DCedRgGHBdm81E1llLhOQ
Rushia : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl_gCybOJRIgOXw6Qb4qJzQ
Flare : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvInZx9h3jC2JzsIzoOebWg
Marine : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCzUftO8KOVkV4wQG1vkUvg
Noel : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdyqAaZDKHXg4Ahi7VENThQ

Suisei: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5CwaMl1eIgY8h02uZw7u8A

Coco : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS9uQI-jC3DE0L4IpXyvr6w
Watame : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqm3BQLlJfvkTsX_hvm0UmA
Towa : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1uv2Oq6kNxgATlCiez59hw
Amane: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZlDXzGoo7d44bwdNObFacg
Luna : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9Y57gfeY0Zro_noHRVrnw

Lamy : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFKOVgVbGmX65RxO3EtH3iw
Nene: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAWSyEs_Io8MtpY3m-zqILA
Botan: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUKD-uaobj9jiqB-VXt71mA

Polka : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCK9V2B22uJYu3N7eR_BT9QA

Kiara: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHsx4Hqa-1ORjQTh9TYDhww
Calliope: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL_qhgtOy0dy1Agp8vkySQg
Ina'nis: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMwGHR0BTZuLsmjY_NT5Pwg
Amelia: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyl1z3jo3XHR1riLFKG5UAg
Gura: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoSrY_IQQVpmIRZ9Xf-y93g

Moona: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP0BspO_AMEe3aQqqpo89Dg
Risu: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOyYb1c43VlX9rc_lT6NKQw
Iofifteen: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAoy6rzhSf4ydcYjJw3WoVg
Reine: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChgTyjG-pdNvxxhdsXfHQ5Q
Ollie: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYz_5n-uDuChHtLo7My1HnQ
Anya: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC727SQYUvx5pDDGQpTICNWg

non-hololive talent from Cover
AZKi: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0TXe_LYZ4scaW2XMyi5_kw

Other channels:
Choco subCh.
AkiRose Ch.
Akai Haato Sub
Mano Aloe

==How I made my projections==
I base my projections from the subscriber count patterns and trends from the past, and then assuming that those trends will continue. The patterns and trends are identified from past sub counts. The past sub counts are gathered from Social Blade (https://www.socialblade.com).
I noticed that the pattern is more or less linear with some bumps during streaming days. On newer hololive members, however, the pattern is less linear (curve) and the bumps are much more pronounced during streaming days. I slightly modify the trends to accommodate other factors that might affect sub counts (for example, break from streaming activities). Of course, my projection will be useless if a major event that will significantly alter the trends will occur. Examples are special events (like new design reveal), hit streams, streams with clippable moments that go viral, streaming breaks, shout-outs from more influential personalities, and mainstream recognition, and controversies.
These projections are not scientific, because I pulled these estimates off my ass, so take this with a grain of salt. Social Blade actually also does projections, so I might make a video based on their projections. But their projection is done very bluntly and without nuances.

#hololive