How many Hololive girls are expected to reach 1 million subscribers in two months?
Welcome to my video, where I try to guess the future subscription counts of leading Hololive members after two months.
I love numbers races and projections based on trends. My guesses/projections will be based on current trends. Possible sub count bumps due to expected future events may be also taken into account. If changes in trends due to unexpected events happen, my projections will become less accurate.
Music: "Shitsureishimasu ga, RIP?" by Calliope Mori (Instrumental)
Original Music Link: https://youtu.be/5y3xh8gs24c
This video is made using Microsoft PowerPoint. Thanks for watching.
Matsuri : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQ0UDLQCjY0rmuxCDE38FGg
Aqua : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1opHUrw8rvnsadT-iGp7Cg
Shion : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXTpFs_3PqI41qX2d9tL2Rw
Mio : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp-5t9SrOQwXMU7iIjQfARg
Okayu : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvaTdHTWBGv3MKj3KVqJVCw
Korone : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChAnqc_AY5_I3Px5dig3X1Q
Miko : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-hM6YJuNYVAmUWxeIr9FeA
Pekora : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1DCedRgGHBdm81E1llLhOQ
Rushia : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl_gCybOJRIgOXw6Qb4qJzQ
Flare : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvInZx9h3jC2JzsIzoOebWg
Marine : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCzUftO8KOVkV4wQG1vkUvg
Noel : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdyqAaZDKHXg4Ahi7VENThQ
Coco : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS9uQI-jC3DE0L4IpXyvr6w
Watame : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqm3BQLlJfvkTsX_hvm0UmA
Towa : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1uv2Oq6kNxgATlCiez59hw
Luna : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9Y57gfeY0Zro_noHRVrnw
Lamy : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFKOVgVbGmX65RxO3EtH3iw
Polka : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCK9V2B22uJYu3N7eR_BT9QA
non-hololive talent from Cover
Akai Haato Sub
==How I made my projections==
I base my projections from the subscriber count patterns and trends from the past, and then assuming that those trends will continue. The patterns and trends are identified from past sub counts. The past sub counts are gathered from Social Blade (https://www.socialblade.com).
I noticed that the pattern is more or less linear with some bumps during streaming days. On newer hololive members, however, the pattern is less linear (curve) and the bumps are much more pronounced during streaming days. I slightly modify the trends to accommodate other factors that might affect sub counts (for example, break from streaming activities). Of course, my projection will be useless if a major event that will significantly alter the trends will occur. Examples are special events (like new design reveal), hit streams, streams with clippable moments that go viral, streaming breaks, shout-outs from more influential personalities, and mainstream recognition, and controversies.
These projections are not scientific, because I pulled these estimates off my ass, so take this with a grain of salt. Social Blade actually also does projections, so I might make a video based on their projections. But their projection is done very bluntly and without nuances.