Hololive Road to 1 Million Subscribers Projection (Nov 7 2020)
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How many Hololive girls are expected to reach 1 million subscribers before the end of the year?
Welcome to my video, where I try to guess the future subscription counts of leading Hololive members up to December 31, 2020.
My guesses/projections will be based on current trends. Possible sub count bumps due to expected future events may be also taken into account. If changes of trends due to unexpected events happen, my projections will become less accurate.
Music: "Shitsureishimasu ga, RIP?" by Calliope Mori (Instrumental)
Original Music Link: https://youtu.be/5y3xh8gs24c
I love numbers races and projections based on trends. I am inspired to make this video after seeing Tawnky's video: This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGKR1ZzjyfY You can also see the channel link of all Hololive members there. I will manually add their links here later.
This video is made using Microsoft PowerPoint. Thanks for watching.
==How I made my projections==
I base my projections from the subscriber count patterns and trends from the past, and then assuming that those trends will continue. The patterns and trends are identified from past sub counts. The past sub counts are gathered from Social Blade (https://www.socialblade.com).
I noticed that the pattern is more or less linear with some bumps during streaming days. On newer hololive members, however, the pattern is less linear (curve) and the bumps are much more pronounced during streaming days. I slightly modify the trends to accommodate other factors that might affect sub counts (for example, break from streaming activities). Of course, my projection will be useless if a major event that will significantly alter the trends will occur. Examples are special events (like new design reveal), hit streams, streams with clippable moments that go viral, streaming breaks, shout-outs from more influential personalities, and mainstream recognition, and controversies.
These projections are not scientific, because I pulled these estimates off my ass, so take this with a grain of salt. Social Blade actually also does projections, so I might make a video based on their projections. But their projection is done very bluntly and without nuances.
#hololive
Welcome to my video, where I try to guess the future subscription counts of leading Hololive members up to December 31, 2020.
My guesses/projections will be based on current trends. Possible sub count bumps due to expected future events may be also taken into account. If changes of trends due to unexpected events happen, my projections will become less accurate.
Music: "Shitsureishimasu ga, RIP?" by Calliope Mori (Instrumental)
Original Music Link: https://youtu.be/5y3xh8gs24c
I love numbers races and projections based on trends. I am inspired to make this video after seeing Tawnky's video: This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGKR1ZzjyfY You can also see the channel link of all Hololive members there. I will manually add their links here later.
This video is made using Microsoft PowerPoint. Thanks for watching.
==How I made my projections==
I base my projections from the subscriber count patterns and trends from the past, and then assuming that those trends will continue. The patterns and trends are identified from past sub counts. The past sub counts are gathered from Social Blade (https://www.socialblade.com).
I noticed that the pattern is more or less linear with some bumps during streaming days. On newer hololive members, however, the pattern is less linear (curve) and the bumps are much more pronounced during streaming days. I slightly modify the trends to accommodate other factors that might affect sub counts (for example, break from streaming activities). Of course, my projection will be useless if a major event that will significantly alter the trends will occur. Examples are special events (like new design reveal), hit streams, streams with clippable moments that go viral, streaming breaks, shout-outs from more influential personalities, and mainstream recognition, and controversies.
These projections are not scientific, because I pulled these estimates off my ass, so take this with a grain of salt. Social Blade actually also does projections, so I might make a video based on their projections. But their projection is done very bluntly and without nuances.
#hololive
